Impact Framework
Map the causal chain from activities to systemic change
Your Progress
Section 4 of 5Beyond Activity Lists
Projects fail when teams confuse doing things with changing things. You can install 1,000 solar panels and still have zero climate impact if no one uses them.
The difference: A Theory of Change forces you to map the causal logic from your activities to your ultimate goals. It makes assumptions explicit, identifies where evidence is weak, and shows where monitoring must focus.
📊 The Impact Pathway Model
Every climate project follows this sequence. Weak links anywhere break the chain.
1. Inputs
Resources invested: money, people, equipment, time, partnerships
2. Activities
What you do with those inputs: programs, services, events, advocacy
3. Outputs
Direct, countable results of activities: things delivered or completed
4. Outcomes
Short-to-medium term changes in behavior, knowledge, conditions, status
5. Impact
Long-term, systemic changes aligned with your ultimate goal
🛤️ Interactive: Build Your Impact Pathway
Select elements from each stage to create your project's theory of change. The tool shows how inputs flow through activities, outputs, outcomes, and ultimately to impact.
🎯 How to Build Your Impact Pathway
1. Select nodes from each stage that represent your project
2. Trace the logic: Inputs → Activities → Outputs → Outcomes → Impact
3. Click "Suggest Connections" to see common patterns, or build your own
Inputs
Resources invested
Activities
What you do
Outputs
Direct results
Outcomes
Changes in behavior/conditions
Impact
Long-term systemic change
Select nodes to map your project's theory of change
❓ Five Questions to Stress-Test Your Logic
1. Is the Causal Link Evidence-Based?
For each arrow in your pathway, ask: "How do we know A leads to B?"
Weak: "Training will improve outcomes" (assumption)
2. What Could Break This Link?
Identify external factors that could disrupt your logic chain.
3. How Long Does Each Stage Take?
Outcomes don't happen instantly. Map realistic timelines.
4. Who Else Contributes to This Change?
You're rarely the only actor. What's your specific contribution?
5. How Will You Know It's Working?
Define specific, measurable indicators for each stage.
📚 Case Study: Forest Restoration in Kenya
The Initial Theory of Change (Flawed)
Inputs: $2M, NGO staff → Activities: Plant 1M trees → Outputs: 1M trees planted → Outcomes: Forest restored → Impact: Carbon sequestered
Problem: Jumped from planting to impact without considering survival, maintenance, or community behavior
The Revised Theory of Change (Reality-Based)
What Changed
- • Realistic outputs: Halved tree target based on survival data
- • Added critical outcomes: Economic incentives for maintenance
- • Explicit assumptions: Community ownership drives long-term care
- • Measurable indicators: Survival rates, income data, carbon verification
- • Timeline honesty: 20-year impact horizon, not 3-year fantasy
📈 From Theory of Change to M&E Framework
Your impact pathway directly informs monitoring and evaluation. Each stage needs indicators:
| Stage | What to Measure | Data Source | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inputs | Budget spent, staff hours, equipment delivered | Financial records, timesheets | Monthly |
| Activities | # trainings conducted, systems installed, events held | Activity logs, attendance sheets | Weekly/Monthly |
| Outputs | # people trained, materials distributed, reach | Completion records, distribution logs | Monthly |
| Outcomes | Behavior change, adoption rates, satisfaction, conditions | Surveys, usage data, assessments | Quarterly/Annually |
| Impact | CO₂ reduction, system-level changes, long-term trends | Third-party verification, studies | Annually/End-of-project |