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Feasibility Analysis

Separate viable projects from wishful thinking

The $10 Million Question

Can this actually work? Not in theory—in the messy reality of implementation.

The brutal truth: 40% of sustainability projects fail due to feasibility issues that should have been caught during design. Technology that works in a lab fails in the field. Business models that pencil out on spreadsheets collapse under real-world constraints.

🎯 Five Dimensions of Feasibility

A project must pass all five tests. One weak dimension can sink the entire initiative.

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Technical

Does the technology work reliably? Can it be maintained locally? Are supply chains robust?

💰

Financial

Can you afford upfront costs? Is the revenue model viable? What's the path to sustainability?

👥

Social

Will people accept and use it? Does it create or reduce inequality? What behavior change is required?

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Environmental

How much climate impact? What co-benefits? Any unintended environmental harms?

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Institutional

Do policies enable or block this? Can you get permits? Are partners committed?

📋 Interactive: Feasibility Scorecard

Rate your project across 15 weighted criteria. Higher weights indicate deal-breaker factors. Be brutally honest—overconfidence at this stage wastes resources later.

Technical Feasibility

Technology Readiness
Is the technology proven and available?
Weight: 3x
Implementation Complexity
How difficult is deployment?
Weight: 2x
Local Capacity
Can local teams maintain it?
Weight: 3x

Financial Feasibility

Upfront Capital
Is initial investment manageable?
Weight: 3x
Return Timeline
How quickly does it pay back?
Weight: 2x
Revenue Model Clarity
How clear is the path to sustainability?
Weight: 2x

Social Feasibility

Community Acceptance
Will people embrace this?
Weight: 3x
Equity Impact
Who benefits? Who is excluded?
Weight: 2x
Behavior Change Required
How much must people change habits?
Weight: 2x

Environmental Feasibility

Climate Impact Potential
How much emissions reduction?
Weight: 3x
Co-Benefits
Beyond carbon: air, water, biodiversity?
Weight: 2x
Environmental Risk
Unintended negative consequences?
Weight: 2x

Institutional Feasibility

Policy Environment
Do regulations support this?
Weight: 3x
Partnership Readiness
Are key partners on board?
Weight: 2x
Permitting Complexity
How hard to get approvals?
Weight: 2x
📊

Rate all 15 criteria to calculate feasibility

⚠️ Seven Feasibility Red Flags

1. "Technology Will Improve"

Betting on future tech breakthroughs. Design for what exists today, not what might exist tomorrow.

2. "Build It and They Will Come"

Assuming demand without validation. Test adoption hypotheses early and often.

3. "We'll Figure It Out Later"

Deferring hard questions (O&M, revenue, governance). These don't get easier—they get more expensive.

4. Single Point of Failure

Project depends on one funder, partner, or approval. Always have backup options.

5. Ignoring Local Context

Copy-pasting solutions from elsewhere. What works in Berlin may fail in Bangalore.

6. Underestimating Time/Cost

Optimistic projections without buffers. Rule of thumb: double the time, add 30% to budget.

7. No Exit Strategy

What if it doesn't work? Define failure criteria and pivot/stop conditions upfront.

📚 Case Study: The $50M Lesson

The Idea

Major foundation funded a $50M program to distribute advanced cookstoves across East Africa. Technology was proven in labs. Financial model showed strong ROI. Impact projections were impressive.

The Reality Check

After 3 years and $15M spent:

  • • Only 30% of stoves still in use (technical: local technicians couldn't repair ceramic liners)
  • • 40% resold immediately (financial: upfront cost too high despite subsidies)
  • • Cultural resistance (social: traditional cooking methods tied to identity)
  • • Supply chain collapsed (institutional: import permits constantly delayed)

What Went Wrong

Feasibility analysis checked boxes but didn't dig deep:

  • • Lab tests ≠ field durability testing
  • • Willingness-to-pay surveys ≠ actual payment behavior
  • • Partner MOUs ≠ operational capacity
  • • No pilot phase to test assumptions

The Pivot

Program shifted to locally-manufactured stoves (technical feasibility), pay-as-you-go financing (financial feasibility), and co-design with women's groups (social feasibility). New model achieved 85% sustained adoption.

Lesson: Would have saved $35M by doing rigorous feasibility before scale-up.

🛠️ Feasibility Testing Toolkit

Rapid Prototyping

Build cheap, fast versions to test core assumptions. Fail small before spending big.

Example: Before $2M solar installation, test with 10 households for 3 months.

Pre-Mortem Analysis

Imagine the project failed spectacularly. Work backward: what went wrong?

Example: "We ran out of funding in month 8 because..."

Red Team Review

Have skeptics tear apart your assumptions. Pressure-test every claim.

Example: "Prove your cost estimates with three vendor quotes."

Comparable Case Research

Find similar projects. What worked? What failed? Talk to implementers.

Example: Study 5 EV charging networks in similar geographies.