Data Patterns: Noise vs Signal
Learn to distinguish weather variability (noise) from climate trends (signal) in temperature data
Your Progress
0 / 5 completedInteractive: Monthly Temperature Variability
J
7°
F
10°
M
17°
A
21°
M
23°
J
26°
J
23°
A
19°
S
17°
O
11°
N
7°
D
6°
15.5°C
Annual Average Temperature
💡 Notice: Individual months vary wildly (weather), but the annual average reveals the climate for that year. Drag the slider through decades to see the warming trend.
Climate Signal: Decadal Averages
❄️
1880-1900
13.8°C
🌡️
1920-1940
14°C
🌤️
1960-1980
14.2°C
🔥
2000-2020
14.9°C
Temperature Trend
1880
1920
1960
2000
Clear upward trend: +1.1°C over 140 years (This is climate change!)
Understanding Signal vs Noise
📊
Noise (Weather)
- •High variability day-to-day and month-to-month
- •Random fluctuations around average
- •Obscures long-term patterns
- •Cannot predict climate from single events
📈
Signal (Climate)
- •Consistent trend over decades
- •Emerges from statistical averaging
- •Reveals fundamental system changes
- •Requires decades of data to identify
🎯 Key Takeaway: Climate scientists use at least 30 years of data to calculate climate normals, smoothing out weather noise to reveal the underlying climate signal. A single cold year doesn't invalidate a multi-decade warming trend.