The Climate Modeling Process
From development to validation - how scientists build trustworthy climate models
Your Progress
Section 3 of 5Building and Testing Climate Models
Model Development
Scientists code physics equations into computer programs, representing atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice processes. Teams of climate scientists, mathematicians, and computer programmers work together over years to develop and refine each model.
Code Components
- • Millions of lines of code
- • Fortran, C++, Python
- • Parallel computing architecture
Computing Power
- • Supercomputers required
- • Months of computation time
- • Petabytes of output data
Model Validation
Before trusting future projections, models must accurately reproduce past climate. Scientists compare model outputs against historical observations - temperature records, ice core data, satellite measurements, and paleoclimate evidence.
Interactive: Model vs. Observations
Models are validated against historical observations. Good agreement with past climate gives confidence in future projections.
Ensemble Modeling
No single model is perfect. Scientists run multiple models (ensembles) and multiple scenarios to understand the range of possible futures. The IPCC assesses results from 30+ modeling centers worldwide, each with different approaches and assumptions.
Why Multiple Models?
- • Different physics implementations
- • Varying grid resolutions
- • Different parameterization schemes
- • Agreement across models = higher confidence
⚠️Understanding Uncertainty
Climate projections always include uncertainty from three sources: