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Transit-Oriented Development

How urban form determines climate impact

Urban Form = Climate Destiny

The most impactful climate decision a city makes isn't technologyβ€”it's where and how densely to build.

❌ Sprawl Model

  • β†’ Single-family homes on large lots
  • β†’ Separated uses (residential, commercial, industrial)
  • β†’ Car-dependent: avg 35+ miles/day driven
  • β†’ Per-capita emissions: 3-5 tons CO2/year (transport)

βœ… TOD Model

  • β†’ Mixed-use buildings within 1/2 mile of transit
  • β†’ 15-minute neighborhoods (walk to daily needs)
  • β†’ Multi-modal: transit, bike, walk, micro-mobility
  • β†’ Per-capita emissions: 1-1.5 tons CO2/year (transport)

The numbers are stark: A person living in sprawl emits 2-3x more from transport than someone in a transit-oriented neighborhood. Globally, urban form determines 40% of transport emissionsβ€”more than vehicle efficiency.

🎯 Interactive: Transit vs. Sprawl Comparison

Compare two development patterns for the same population. Watch how density affects emissions, costs, and livability.

City Population

500K
200K2M

Car-Dependent Model

Land Area
250 sq mi
Transportation Mode
πŸš— Car82%
Avg Commute
32 min
Transport Emissions
2100K tCO2
Infrastructure Cost
$4250.0B

Transit-Oriented Model

Land Area
42 sq mi(-83%)
Transportation Mode
πŸš‡ Transit42%
🚢 Walk/Bike30%
πŸš— Car28%
Avg Commute
24 min(-8 min)
Transport Emissions
700K tCO2(-67%)
Infrastructure Cost
$1600.0B(-62%)

πŸ™οΈ Six TOD Design Principles

1. Density Gradients

Highest density within 1/4 mile of station (12-20 floors), tapering to 3-6 floors at 1/2 mile. Ensures ridership while respecting neighborhoods.

2. Mixed-Use Mandate

Ground floor retail, residential above, offices nearby. Creates 18-hour activity, supports local businesses, reduces commute trips by 30-40%.

3. Parking Minimums β†’ Maximums

Traditional codes require 1-2 spaces per unit. TOD caps at 0.5-1. Frees land for housing, cuts construction costs $25-50K per unit.

4. Pedestrian-First Streets

Wide sidewalks (12-15ft), protected bike lanes, street trees, slow traffic (15-20 mph). Safety increases walking by 50-80%.

5. Frequent Service

Transit every 5-10 minutes peak, 15 minutes off-peak. Eliminates schedulesβ€”just show up. Ridership doubles vs. 30-min headways.

6. Affordable Housing Integration

20-30% below-market units required. Prevents displacement, ensures diverse neighborhoods, concentrates transit benefits equitably.

🌍 Cities That Got It Right

πŸ‡©πŸ‡° Copenhagen: The 15-Minute City

62% of residents bike to work/school (vs. 1% US average). Integrated metro, S-train, bus rapid transit. Zero-car neighborhoods like NΓΈrrebro. Result: 45% of trips by bike, 20% transit, 35% car.

Per-capita transport emissions: 1.2 tons CO2/year (vs. 3.8 US average)

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Shenzhen: Electric Transit

100% of 16,000+ buses are electric (since 2017). 12 metro lines, 300+ km of track. Mixed-use TOD mandated for all new developments. Population 13M, density 7,000/sq mi.

Annual diesel savings: 345,000 tons | CO2 reduction: 1.35M tons

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Vancouver: SkyTrain Network Effect

68 km automated metro (since 1985) shaped city growth. 80% of new housing within 800m of stations. Car ownership: 550 per 1,000 people (vs. 800 North America avg). Upzoning near stations funded transit expansion.

Result: Lowest per-capita transport emissions in North America
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